Bud Light’s Stock Plummets Further and Sales Crater Amid Dylan Mulvaney Boycott as Beer Giant Faces Possible Long

Aug 13, 2023

A retail analyst predicted to the Sun that the boycott could last through the summer.

The backlash over a single promotional deal between Bud Light and a transgender comedian and actress, Dylan Mulvaney, appears to have precipitated a 17 percent drop in the stock of its parent company, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and a nearly 24 percent drop in sales.

Over a month on from its last earnings call on May 4, Anheuser-Busch InBev has seen its stock slide more than 17 percent in a decline that analysts at Evercore ISI attributed to the boycott.

"Another week of very weak trends for Bud Light indicates that tracked channels may be reaching a point of stabilization, albeit at significantly lower levels for Anheuser-Busch InBev than prior to the controversy," Evercore ISI said in a note to clients obtained by Yahoo Finance.

In the week ending on May 27, the last week with available data, Bud Light sales were down 23.9 percent compared to the same week last year, according to data from Bump Williams Consulting.

This represents an improvement from the 25.7 percent decline from the previous week but still a steep drop from the previous year.

The slow uptick in sales accompanies a report from the Daily Mail in which a former Anheuser-Busch executive, Anson Frericks, warns that the drop off in sales could become permanent, when retailers reshuffle their prime shelving space this fall.

Mr. Frericks told the Daily Mail that "they generally take sales data from April, May, June, July, and then based off of that data in that time period, they will reallocate shelf space."

"That almost permanently then locks in this as the new norm of where their sales will be, and what their share of the beer category will be," Mr. Frericks added.

The president and chief executive of Bump Williams Consulting, Bump Williams, however, tells the Sun that Bud Light is unlikely to see any big hits to shelving allocation this fall for a couple of reasons.

The first is that the fall shelving reshuffle "is more of a tweak" where companies roll out seasonal beers like pumpkin flavored brews and Octoberfest draughts.

"The fall shelf sets are nowhere near as impactful as the spring sets," Mr. Williams tells the Sun. "Why? Because in the fall the summer selling season is already over. In the spring you’re loading up with what you think is going to be the hot selling packages."

According to Mr. Williams, the only real threat to brands is if their product is discontinued — meaning pulled from shelves entirely — by retailers. He says this isn't going to happen.

"Bud Light Brand on a year to date basis is still the number one selling beer in the country," Mr. William says. "There is no way any retailer would remove the number one selling beer from their selves."

Mr. Williams also told the Sun that there has been considerable regional variance to the decline throughout the Bud Light boycott.

"There are some local markets within states that are actually enjoying growth for Bud Light," Mr. Williams says. "The balance in terms of decline ranges from upper single digits to as much as 40 percent."

According to Mr. Williams, across around 65 markets in America only one midwestern market for Bud Light saw sales increase in the last week of data. Over the past year, only three markets have seen sales increase — two in the midwest and one in the southeast.

The boycott against Bud Light, which began when conservatives decided not to support the company for doing a single promotion with Ms. Mulvaney, is entering its third month and shows no sign of relenting.

Last week, one retail analyst told the Sun that of the two targets of protests by conservatives, Bud Light and Target, he expects the Bud Light boycott to last longer, probably through the end of the summer.